Statistics
Divorce Statistics
The breakdown of a marriage, which was entered into with expectations of happiness and fulfilment, is frequently so painful that many people turn away from the issue, neglecting... even refusing, to see the real cost involved.
The following statistics and estimates may provide some insight into the wider impact of relationship failure.
Just as we become numb to the level and cost of motor accidents, because they happen so frequently, so we can numb to the injury of separation and divorce, failing to question whether the damage is avoidable or containable.
Table of Divorces with 10 year Projections
(at average of last three (3) year's growth rate of 1% per annum)
Source ABS 1998 data noted. All projections and estimates also identified.
| 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 2005 | Decade | ||
| Divorce rate growth (p/a) (assumes 1996-8 rate) | 1.0% | 5.0% | -2.2% | 0.2% | Est. | Est. |
| Divorces (ABS) | 52,466 | 51,288 | 51,370 | 54,967 | 528,963 | |
| Common Law Relationship (CLR) terminations (Est.) *1 | 30% | 15,740 | 15,386 | 15,411 | 16,490 | 158,689 |
| Total relationship terminations (Est.) | 68,206 | 68,868 | 69,538 | 74,407 | 712,663 | |
| Men effected (Est.) | 68,206 | 68,868 | 69,538 | 74,407 | 712,663 | |
| Children under 18 involved in divorce families (ABS) | 52,455 | 51,742 | 51,602 | 56,048 | 536,990 | |
| % of marriage divorces w/children under 18 (ABS) | 53.6% | 54.0% | 53.4% | |||
| Average % for 3 years | 53.7% | Est | ||||
| Common Law Relationship w/Children <18 (Est.) | 8,447 | 8,257 | 8,271 | 8,850 | 85,163 | |
| Children/relationship (assuming ABS marriage rate) *2 | 1.9 | |||||
| Children in Common Law relationship breakup (Est.) | 16,049 | 16,205 | 16,363 | 17,508 | 167,695 | |
| Total children (from marriages ABS) + (Est CLR) | 68,504 | 67,947 | 67,965 | 73,557 | 704,685 | |
| Estimated grandparents (1 side of relationship) *3 (Est.) | 1.5 | 102,309 | 103,303 | 104,306 | 111,610 | 1,068,994 |
| Total fathers, children & grandparents (Est.) | 239,019 | 240,118 | 241,809 | 259,573 | 2,486,343 | |
| Candidates for "baggage" into future relationships *4 (est.) | 204,916 | 205,684 | 207,040 | 222,370 | 2,130,011 | |
*1 - This can only be approximated due to varying relationship permanence
*2 - Assumes # children in common-law equals marriage relationships
*3 - Assumes 1 of a childs 4 grandparents has died
*4 -Assumes father, mother and children are candidates
Percentage of Australian Marriages Ending in Divorce
(Source ABS 1998 & Aust. Family Formation Project)
Australian data (supported by research in other major western countries) indicates that cohabitation prior to marriage not only does not increase the likelihood of success, but actually does the opposite. (See graph above) The reasons for this can only be speculated upon, but several observers of this dynamic suspect that there may be an increased tendency to 'drift' (rather than move consciously) into marriage, from a cohabitative lead up.
This has particular relevance for men who have survived one marriage or serious de-facto relationship break-up. In the absence of data which suggests some prior cohabitation may be counter-productive (approximately 25% higher risk of failure), men may assume that a "test-drive" may actually increase the risk of a repeat failure.
MENDS points out that better predictors for a stable relationship are:
- Self knowledge
- Partner knowledge
- Relationship skills competency
